Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for BHP and Vale, while downgrading South32 and Sandfire to "Neutral" [7][4]. Core Insights - Total visible copper inventories have decreased from approximately 700kt in August to 580kt in October, but this level is still about double compared to the same period in 2022/23 [4]. - China's refined copper demand fell to negative levels in Q2 2024, leading to a year-to-date demand growth of only 1% as of August [4]. - The copper price has rebounded by 12% to 4.40/lb) from the August low, yet remains over 10% below the year-to-date high in May [4]. - J.P. Morgan forecasts a copper price of 5/lb) for 2025, driven by stock unwinding and a supportive manufacturing environment due to falling interest rates [4]. Summary by Sections Copper Market Overview - Global copper demand has contracted by 2% year-to-date as of July, with demand from the rest of the world down 12% [4]. - Despite low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), refined copper production in China has increased by 6% year-to-date as of August [4]. Price Forecasts - The report anticipates a refined market surplus of approximately 200kt for 2024 and a deficit of around 90kt in 2025 [4]. - The upcoming U.S. elections are highlighted as a potential risk that could lead to increased tariffs and negatively impact base metal prices [4]. Company Ratings and Preferences - Preferred copper exposures include BHP in Australia, Lundin Mining in EMEA, and Teck in North America [4]. - The report has downgraded South32 and Sandfire to "Neutral" and remains underweight on Antofagasta and Boliden [4][7]. Substitution Analysis - A deep dive into copper substitution indicates that while substitution may accelerate in newer technologies, it is unlikely to fill the long-term physical market deficit, with a potential reduction of only ~3Mt in the 2030 deficit forecast [5].
摩根大通：铜价反弹，但今年迄今全球需求已萎缩，库存仍高于 2023 年峰值
2024-10-20 16:58