花旗：NVIDIA_ GPU 与定制 ASIC – 两者将共存

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) with a target price of US $150.00**, implying an expected share price return of **11.3%** [6] Core Viewpoints - **GPUs and ASICs will coexist** in the AI/ML infrastructure buildout, with ASICs used for specialized models and GPUs for training and inference of larger, more complex models [4] - NVIDIA GPUs are expected to dominate the AI accelerator market, with **75% share** of the **$ 380B AI accelerator TAM by 2028 [4][22] - NVIDIA holds a 67% share of the AI accelerator installed base among the top four US hyperscalers, driven by its performance lead, scaling capabilities, and large installed base [5] GPU and ASIC Market Dynamics - NVIDIA GPU compute sales are forecasted to grow 118% YoY in 2024E and 84% YoY in 2025E, with hyperscaler GPU sales growing 100% in 2024E and 67% in 2025E [4] - Custom ASICs are expected to grow to 8% of US cloud provider capex in 2024E, with sales ramping by 200%+ in 2024E before normalizing to 16% YoY growth in 2025E [4] - By 2028, the AI accelerator market is projected to reach $500B**, with GPUs accounting for **76%** and ASICs for **25%** of the market [26] Hyperscaler AI Accelerator Landscape - **Google** and **Microsoft** lead in AI accelerator installed base, with **~2M units each**, while **Amazon** has **~1.5M** and **Meta** has **~800K** [26] - Microsoft relies heavily on NVIDIA GPUs (**95%+ of installed base**), while Google leans on its TPU infrastructure (**65% of installed base**) but is increasing investments in NVIDIA GPUs [26] - Amazon balances its own Inferentia and Trainium chips with NVIDIA offerings (**60% of installed base**), while Meta is aggressively investing in NVIDIA products (**90% of installed base**) [26] Financial Projections - NVIDIA's sales revenue is projected to grow from **$ 26.97B in 2023 to $262.28B in 2027E**, with a **73.4% gross margin** in 2027E [10] - EBITDA is expected to increase from **$ 13.34B in 2023 to $181.33B in 2027E**, with an **EBITDA margin of 69.1%** in 2027E [10] - Core EPS is forecasted to grow from **$ 0.33 in 2023 to $5.51 in 2027E, with a P/E ratio of 24.5x in 2027E [10] ASIC Design and Development - Full-custom ASIC design offers reduced size and higher capabilities but is more complex and costly, while semi-custom ASIC design reduces initial design efforts and limits non-recurring engineering costs [17] - Programmable ASICs provide flexibility by allowing hardware-level programming after manufacturing, making them suitable for specialized workloads [18]