煤炭行业周报：9月供需淡季不淡，煤价短期或窄幅震荡

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of 9, indicating a positive outlook for the coal industry in the short term [1]. Core Insights - The coal supply and demand showed improvement in September, characterized by "off-season not weak" trends, with national raw coal output reaching 414 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% and a month-on-month increase of 4.5% [3]. - Cumulative coal production from January to September was 3.476 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [3]. - Coal imports in September were 47.59 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 13% and a month-on-month increase of 3.8%, with cumulative imports reaching 389 million tons, up 11.9% year-on-year [3]. - The demand for thermal power, pig iron, and cement showed varied performance, with thermal power output increasing by 8.9% year-on-year, while pig iron and cement outputs decreased by 6.7% and 10.3% respectively [3]. - The report anticipates that demand will enter a peak season in Q4, with supply expected to grow slightly, maintaining strong supply and demand dynamics [3]. Summary by Sections Production - In September, the daily coal production averaged 13.82 million tons, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 5.5% and 8% respectively [3]. - The report notes that the cumulative coal output from January to September turned positive for the first time this year [1]. Imports - The report highlights that September's coal imports reached a record high due to favorable international coal prices, with cumulative imports for the year showing a significant increase [3]. Demand - The report indicates that the demand side was influenced by high temperatures in southern regions and low water levels in the Yangtze River, leading to high power plant consumption and improved non-electric demand [3]. - The GDP growth for the first three quarters was reported at 4.8% year-on-year, with industrial added value growing by 5.4% [3]. Price Trends - As of October 18, the coal price at Qinhuangdao was RMB 840 per ton, with a weekly decrease of RMB 7 and a year-on-year decrease of RMB 173 [3]. - The report notes that despite short-term fluctuations, thermal coal prices are expected to remain high due to the import price advantage supplementing domestic demand [3]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from the current market conditions [3].