KUAISHOU-花旗：快手_2024 年第三季度业绩有望符合预期；未来将加强内容电商业务

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price of HK $67, implying a 41 2% expected share price return [9][24] Core Views - Kuaishou is expected to report 3Q24 results in line with consensus, with revenue growth of 11 2% YoY to RMB31 1bn and adjusted earnings of RMB3 98bn [4][5] - Ecommerce GMV growth is projected at 15% YoY in 3Q24, driving 17% YoY growth in both ecommerce commission and ecommerce ads revenue [4][6] - Non-ecommerce ads momentum is expected to sustain into 2H24, supported by rapidly growing verticals like short plays [4][6] - Kuaishou is focusing on strengthening KOL live streaming ecommerce and content to compete during the Double 11 campaign [4][16] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow 12 1% YoY in 2024E to RMB127 2bn, with ecommerce and ads driving growth [13][17] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve to 19 6% in 2024E, up from 15 3% in 2023 [13][17] - Core EPS is forecasted to grow 72 8% YoY in 2024E to RMB3 995, with further growth of 28 5% in 2025E [8][17] Strategic Focus - Kuaishou's ecommerce strategy includes strengthening top KOLs, enhancing content (short video, live streaming, text & graphics), improving customer shopping protection, and advancing shelf-based ecommerce [16] - The company is allocating more resources to top KOLs and content to strengthen its live streaming ecommerce edge during the Double 11 campaign [6][16] Valuation - The target price of HK$ 67 is based on a 12x 2025E adjusted EPS of HK$5 6, close to 1 standard deviation below its historical PE average [24] - The valuation implies a ~0 4x PEG ratio to the 2024-26E earnings CAGR of 26%, reflecting Kuaishou's No 2 position in the short video market and potential competition from Weixin Video Accounts [24]