花旗：美国高收益信贷策略_15 分钟投机性预测

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious stance on duration due to rising real yields, suggesting a shift in investment strategy [26]. Core Insights - The high yield market has seen a significant increase in the proportion of 144A securities, which now make up 83% of the high yield market, up from 50% in 2019 [30]. - The emergence of 144A rising stars is notable, with $11 billion in 144A rising stars nearly equaling $11.5 billion in registered rising stars for the first time [34]. - The loan market is experiencing a deterioration in credit quality, with the average rating of loans declining since peaking in 2015 [55]. Summary by Sections High Yield Market - The 144A for life segment has grown from 5% in December 2008 to 83% today, indicating a major shift in the high yield market landscape [30]. - Rising stars in the 144A category are tightening after upgrades but remain wider compared to registered rising stars due to less market sponsorship [82]. Loan Market - The average rating of loans is expected to continue declining as higher quality issuers exit the market, while lower quality issuers face increased borrowing and rating deterioration [83]. - The report anticipates that lower borrowing costs in the long term may encourage a return of higher quality issuers and stabilize rating downgrades [83].