中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20241021

Key Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a decrease in the rate of decline in sales and investment, although absolute values remain at historical lows [10][11][12] - The third quarter GDP growth was reported at 4.6%, which aligns with market expectations but indicates a weaker growth trend, while September's economic data showed slight improvements [2][3] - The introduction of supportive policies in the real estate sector, including the "two increases" strategy, aims to stimulate demand and investment in the housing market [4][5] Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth for the third quarter was 4.6%, with nominal GDP growth at 4.0%, and cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters at 4.8% [2][3] - Industrial value added in September increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with high-tech industries showing a cumulative growth of 9.1% [2] - Fixed asset investment growth for the first nine months was 3.4%, with manufacturing investment growing by 9.2% [2][3] Real Estate Sector Analysis - In September, the sales area of commercial housing was 96.82 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 11.0%, although this represents a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [11][12] - The total investment in real estate development in September was 939.6 billion yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued low level of investment activity [12] - The report notes that the inventory of new homes is decreasing, but the de-stocking period is extending, indicating ongoing pressure in the market [11][12] Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the importance of recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including adjustments to housing loan rates and the introduction of new financing mechanisms for real estate projects [4][5][13] - The "two increases" policy includes plans for urban village renovations and the increase of credit support for qualified real estate projects, which are expected to boost regional investment [4][5] Technology Sector Insights - Huawei's Harmony OS NEXT has entered public testing, with significant market share growth, surpassing Apple's iOS in the Chinese smartphone market [7][8][9] - The expansion of the Harmony OS ecosystem is expected to reshape the operating system landscape for smart devices, with banks rapidly adopting the new system [7][8]