家用电器行业专题研究：当前时点如何看家电？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The home appliance sector is currently in a favorable position due to the "trade-in" policy stimulus, ongoing real estate easing, and the likelihood of outperforming the market in the near term [2][19] - Historical analysis shows that during the last 20 years, the home appliance sector has had a moderate win rate during market uptrends, with 17 wins and 21 losses out of 38 instances, indicating no significant bias [5][16] - The elasticity of domestic sales has exceeded expectations since the implementation of policies, with many categories experiencing both volume and price increases [7][19] - Export performance is expected to remain robust, supported by stable demand in mature markets and positive trends in emerging markets [8][19] Summary by Sections Performance in Upward Phases - The home appliance sector has shown a moderate win rate during market uptrends, with 17 wins and 21 losses in 38 instances analyzed since 2005 [5][16] - The average winning margin for the home appliance sector during these phases is 6.8%, while the average loss margin is 11.3%, indicating a slight disadvantage in terms of returns [5][16] Domestic Policy Elasticity - Since the comprehensive rollout of policies at the end of August, sales feedback has been significantly better than expected, with many categories showing notable increases in both volume and price [7][19] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by fiscal and monetary support, suggests that pessimistic expectations may be unwarranted [7][19] Export Growth Expectations - Concerns regarding export growth have been alleviated, with recent data indicating stable growth despite rising bases and potential economic slowdowns in mature markets [8][19] - The combination of low inventory levels in mature markets and sustained demand in emerging markets is expected to contribute positively to export performance [8][19] Maintaining "Outperform the Market" Rating - The "trade-in" policy is expected to drive domestic sales, with significant subsidy sales anticipated [9] - Recommendations include high-quality, high-dividend white goods leaders such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as companies benefiting from monetary easing [9]