白酒调整期复盘：估值拐点隐现，期待需求传导

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the liquor industry [8][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is transitioning from demand-driven to supply-driven dynamics, with future demand growth expected to slow down while concentration in the market has significant room for improvement. The current valuation offers a high margin of safety when considering dividend yield and earnings growth [12][14]. - The report highlights that the industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with macroeconomic recovery expected to support valuation stabilization [12][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Two Adjustment Periods - The liquor sector can be divided into five stages during its cycles: valuation decline, Davis double kill, bottoming phase, valuation recovery, and Davis double hit. The current phase is identified as the bottoming phase, with macroeconomic weak recovery and performance growth seeking a bottom [12][18]. - Historical data shows that during the adjustment periods of 2012-2015 and 2018, the liquor index bottomed out ahead of most macroeconomic indicators [12][23]. - The report notes that during both adjustment periods, the performance of the liquor sector showed resilience due to increased concentration among leading companies [12][14]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating, emphasizing that the industry is shifting from demand to supply-driven factors. It highlights the potential for significant improvement in market concentration [12][14]. - The report recommends high-barrier brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye as top picks, followed by Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Laobai Ganjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jinshiyuan [12][14]. 3. Macroeconomic Context - The report indicates that macroeconomic policies are shifting, with a series of unexpected measures aimed at stimulating the economy, which could lead to improved demand for liquor products [12][14]. - It also notes that the performance expectations for leading companies are gradually being adjusted, with Kweichow Moutai's price showing multiple fluctuations this year, indicating a release of industry inventory pressure [12][14].