食品饮料行业深度研究：白酒调整期复盘：估值拐点隐现，期待需求传导

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the liquor industry [8][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is transitioning from demand-driven to supply-driven dynamics, with future demand growth expected to slow down while concentration in the market has significant room for improvement. The current valuation of the sector shows a high margin of safety when considering dividend yield and earnings growth [12][14]. - The report highlights that the industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with macroeconomic recovery expected to support valuation stabilization. The top picks include high brand barrier companies such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, followed by Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Laobai Ganjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jinshiyuan [12][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Two Adjustment Periods - The liquor sector can be divided into five stages during its cycles: valuation decline, Davis double kill, bottoming phase, valuation recovery, and Davis double hit. The current phase is identified as the bottoming phase, with macroeconomic weak recovery and performance growth seeking a bottom [12][18]. - Historical data shows that during the adjustment periods of 2012-2015 and 2018, the liquor index bottomed out ahead of most macroeconomic indicators, indicating a leading trend in stock prices compared to economic recovery [12][23]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating, emphasizing that the industry is shifting from demand to supply dynamics. The concentration in the market still has considerable room for growth, and the current valuation offers a compelling investment opportunity [12][14]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with high brand barriers, specifically Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while also suggesting other brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao as secondary picks [12][14]. 3. Macroeconomic Context - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with policies aimed at stimulating the economy. The report notes that the performance expectations for leading companies are being adjusted positively, and the industry is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in demand [12][14].