房地产行业：2024年9月上海住宅买卖市场

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Shanghai residential market Core Insights - The new housing supply in Shanghai has increased significantly, with 29 projects launched in September, up by 9 from the previous month, but sales remain uneven across different projects [3] - The new policy introduced on September 29 aims to optimize purchase restrictions and credit policies, potentially boosting sales, especially for new homes in areas with high inventory [3] - The second-hand housing market continues to struggle, with September transactions dropping by 19% month-on-month, although new policies may stimulate demand in October [6][7] Summary by Sections Part 1: New Residential Properties - New housing supply has surged, with a total of 29 projects launched in September, leading to a supply-demand ratio of 1.30 and an inventory increase of approximately 2.01 million square meters [3] - The transaction structure has shifted, with properties priced below 5 million yuan gaining a 5% increase in market share, while the share of 90-120 square meter properties decreased by 8% [4] Part 2: Second-Hand Residential Properties - The second-hand market saw approximately 13,000 transactions in September, a 19% decrease from the previous month, with an average price of 37,953 yuan per square meter, down by 1% [6] - The introduction of new policies, including lower down payment ratios and credit incentives, is expected to benefit buyers with limited funds, potentially leading to a recovery in the second-hand market [6][7] - The transaction structure has shifted towards lower-priced properties, with over two-thirds of transactions involving units under 90 square meters [7] Market Trends - All districts in Shanghai experienced a decline in transaction volumes in September, with some areas like Jing'an and Songjiang showing smaller declines compared to the city average [10] - Certain well-equipped residential areas, such as Qingpu New City, have seen transaction volumes increase despite the overall market downturn, driven by improved infrastructure and amenities [11][12] - The report highlights that traditional large communities are maintaining high transaction activity, with several neighborhoods in Pudong seeing increased sales [14][15]