海外宏观周报：高赤字与强零售短期继续支持美元与美债收益率

Economic Data - In the week ending October 20, 2023, U.S. retail sales for September increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the 0.1% expectation, while the year-on-year growth slightly decreased to 1.74% from 2.13%[1] - The annualized new housing starts in September fell to 1.354 million units, down from 1.361 million units, with single-family homes improving to 1.027 million units, the highest since April[1] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for FY2024 is projected to reach approximately $1.828 trillion, marking the third-highest deficit in history, with a deficit-to-GDP ratio of at least 6.3%[1] Market Trends - The U.S. dollar index rose for three consecutive weeks, closing at 103.4615, supported by resilient U.S. economic data and dovish expectations for the Eurozone[1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 1.0 basis points to 4.097%[1] - Major U.S. stock indices continued to rise, with weekly closing prices reaching historical highs, including the S&P 500 up by 0.9%[1] Global Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to adopt a more dovish stance than the Federal Reserve, with a predicted rate cut of 25 basis points in December 2023 and further cuts in 2025[2] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index indicates significant improvement in economic performance for the U.S. and China, while the Eurozone and emerging markets show slight improvements[1]