轻工造纸行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：Q3内需延续承压，外需具备韧性，增长分化，关注个股Alpha

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper manufacturing sector, highlighting resilience in export demand and opportunities in specific companies [2]. Core Insights - Q3 performance shows a divergence between external and internal demand, with exports demonstrating growth resilience despite profit pressures from currency fluctuations [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying individual companies with strong growth potential (Alpha) within the sector, recommending specific firms for investment [2]. - The light consumer goods segment is experiencing a deepening competitive landscape, with quality companies maintaining or increasing market share [2]. - The packaging industry is undergoing consolidation, with leading firms entering a harvest phase, highlighting high dividend value [2]. - The paper industry faces challenges with rising wood pulp costs and weak market conditions, but certain niche companies are expected to perform well [2]. Export Sector Performance - Q3 export revenue is projected to grow, with companies like Jia Yi Co. expected to see a revenue increase of over 50% year-on-year [3]. - Other notable companies include Yongyi Co. with a projected revenue growth of approximately 38% and Yi Yi Co. with an expected growth of 38% [3][4]. Light Consumer Goods Sector Performance - Companies such as Baiya Co. are forecasted to achieve a revenue increase of 50.6% year-on-year in Q3, while Jiuhua Co. is expected to see a 40% increase [5][6]. - The report highlights the resilience of leading brands in the face of external pressures, with many maintaining steady growth [5]. Packaging Sector Performance - The packaging industry is expected to see revenue growth, with companies like Yutong Technology projected to achieve an 8% increase in revenue [8][9]. - The report notes that leading firms are benefiting from efficiency advantages and market consolidation [8]. Paper Sector Performance - The paper industry is facing profitability challenges, with companies like Sun Paper expected to see a 19% decline in net profit quarter-on-quarter [10][12]. - Despite these challenges, certain niche players are anticipated to navigate the downturn effectively [10]. Home Furnishing Sector Performance - The home furnishing sector is projected to experience revenue declines, with companies like Gujia Home expected to see an 8% drop in revenue [13][14]. - The report suggests that while short-term pressures exist, there may be a gradual recovery in demand supported by policy changes [13].