摩根士丹利：半导体生产设备_海外投资者来访反馈（香港、新加坡）

Investment Rating - The semiconductor production equipment industry in Japan is rated as Attractive [2]. Core Insights - Expectations for the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market in 2025 are declining, with a consensus view suggesting that 5% growth would be the best-case scenario, and potential for negative growth exists due to various factors including China's domestic production of frontend equipment, concerns over HBM oversupply, and weak smartphone sales [2][3]. - Demand for AI semiconductors remains robust, leading to a shift in capital expenditure (capex) from frontend to backend equipment, with a notable change in the semiconductor value chain [3]. - The focus of advanced technology development is transitioning from advanced lithography to advanced packaging solutions [3]. Summary by Company Advantest (6857.T) - The tester market is bottoming out, with potential growth expected to match that of the WFE market due to increased demand for devices requiring long test times, such as edge AI and generative AI [11]. - Target price is set at ¥7,700 based on a P/E of 20.0x and an EPS estimate of ¥382.6 for F3/27 [11]. Disco (6146.T) - Target P/E is set at 25.1x, with an EPS estimate of ¥2,472.5 for F3/27, when earnings are expected to peak [5]. - The company is recommended as a focus name due to its strong position in backend equipment [2][4]. Ulvac (6728.T) - Target price is ¥12,100, based on an EPS estimate of ¥856.4 and a P/E of 14.2x, reflecting lower market growth in FPD equipment [8]. Lasertec (6920.T) - Target price applies a P/E of 20.0x to an EPS estimate of ¥1,628.4, with expectations for steady earnings growth despite the current correction phase in the SPE market [14]. Tokyo Electron (8035.T) - Target price of ¥44,100 is calculated using a 20.0x average forward P/E based on next-FY estimates, with an EPS estimate of ¥1,545.5 for F3/27 [17].