摩根大通：台积电 First Take_ 3Q24 强劲的 GM 表现；4Q 指引更好，2025 年 AI 将继续上涨；OW

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to TSMC with a price target of NT$1200.0 by June 2025 [4][11]. Core Insights - TSMC's 3Q24 results significantly exceeded expectations, with gross margin (GM) at 57.8%, surpassing the guidance midpoint of 54.5% and J.P. Morgan's estimate of 54.8% [1][2]. - The 4Q revenue guidance indicates a 13% quarter-over-quarter growth, which is better than the consensus estimate of 7% [2]. - Continued strong demand for AI is expected to drive growth in the coming years, with AI server demand already contributing to mid-teens of 2024 revenues [2][11]. - TSMC's capacity utilization for N5 and N3 processes is projected to be over 100% in 4Q24, contributing to the GM increase despite challenges from process conversions and power tariff hikes [2][11]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in non-AI segments by 2025, dispelling concerns about an imminent semiconductor cycle peak [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - TSMC reported revenues of NT$760 billion for 3Q24, with a gross profit of NT$439 billion, resulting in a GM of 57.8% [9]. - The operating profit was NT$361 billion, with an operating margin (OPM) of 47.5% [9]. - Net profit reached NT$325 billion, translating to an EPS of NT$12.54, reflecting an 11% quarter-over-quarter growth [9]. Growth Drivers - The report highlights TSMC's strong position in AI accelerators and edge AI, supported by its advanced process technology and packaging capabilities [11]. - The anticipated capex for 2025 is expected to be higher than in 2024, indicating a commitment to support growth [2][11]. - TSMC's commentary on Intel outsourcing suggests potential for increased collaboration, as Intel may need to rely on TSMC for its manufacturing needs [2][11]. Market Outlook - The report expects a 5-8% uptick in TSMC's stock price in the near term due to strong results and positive guidance [8]. - Analysts anticipate a revision of EPS estimates upward by 7-8%, with FY24 consensus earnings projected to reach NT$45-46 levels [7].