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摩根士丹利：台积电_3Q24毛利率强劲，AI半导体需求强劲；OW
摩根大通·2024-10-21 15:21

Investment Rating - TSMC is rated Overweight with a price target of NT1,280,representinga241,280, representing a 24% upside from the current price of NT1,035 [5] - The industry view for Greater China Technology Semiconductors is In-Line [5] Core Investment Thesis - TSMC's 3Q24 EPS was NT12.54,1012.54, 10% above the forecast, with a gross margin of 57.8%, significantly higher than the consensus estimate of 55% [2] - TSMC guided 4Q24 revenue to grow 13% Q/Q, exceeding the consensus estimate of 9% Q/Q, and expects full-year revenue growth of close to 30% Y/Y in USD terms [2] - The company plans to more than double its CoWoS capacity in 2025 to meet AI semiconductor demand, although it may still face challenges in fully meeting customer demand [3] - TSMC's gross margin is expected to sustain at 57-59% in 4Q24 due to high fab utilization, but 2025 margins may face headwinds from overseas fab dilution and rising electricity costs [3] Financial Performance - 3Q24 revenue was NT759.7 billion, up 12.8% Q/Q and 39.0% Y/Y, beating both Morgan Stanley and consensus estimates [4] - Operating expenses (Opex) were NT79.1billion,representing10.479.1 billion, representing 10.4% of revenue, lower than the consensus estimate of 10.8% [4] - Operating profit margin (OPM) reached 47.5%, up 494bps Q/Q and 577bps Y/Y, significantly above consensus estimates [4] AI Semiconductor Demand - TSMC believes AI demand is sustainable, citing internal adoption and strong customer interest [3] - The company's AI-related semiconductor business is expected to drive growth, with NVIDIA being a key customer contributing to higher margins [3] Valuation and Growth Outlook - TSMC's EPS is projected to grow from NT42.19 in 2024 to NT70.65in2026,withaP/Eratioexpectedtodeclinefrom24.5xin2024to14.7xin2026[5]−Thecompany′sModelWarenetincomeisforecastedtoincreasefromNT70.65 in 2026, with a P/E ratio expected to decline from 24.5x in 2024 to 14.7x in 2026 [5] - The company's ModelWare net income is forecasted to increase from NT1,094 billion in 2024 to NT$1,832 billion in 2026 [5] Industry Coverage - The Greater China Technology Semiconductors sector includes key players such as TSMC, UMC, MediaTek, and SMIC, with varying ratings and price targets [16][17]