摩根士丹利：Microsoft_ 1Q25 预览 – 透过树木看森林

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Microsoft, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [4]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has turned negative due to concerns over gross margins, capital expenditures, GenAI monetization, and the relationship with OpenAI. However, these concerns are viewed as transitory, presenting an attractive entry point for investors [1][2]. - Microsoft is expected to achieve Azure growth of 33-34% in constant currency for the first quarter, aligning with updated guidance, and is anticipated to accelerate to mid- to high-30% growth in the second half of the fiscal year [3][9]. - The report highlights that Microsoft's strong positioning in the GenAI space and disciplined operating expenses could lead to a durable double-digit EPS growth, with a projected 16% CAGR through CY26 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Azure Growth Expectations - Investor expectations for Azure growth in F1Q are set at 33-34% cc, which is achievable and should instill confidence for a flat F2Q guide, leading to mid- to high-30% growth in F2H [3][9]. - The report notes that traditional workload growth appears more de-risked, and AI demand is building ahead of the F2H capacity unlock [2][7]. Microsoft 365 Copilot - Expectations for Microsoft 365 Copilot have been reset, with 68% of CIOs planning to deploy it within 12 months, and an average penetration of 21% expected in the next year [16][19]. - The report anticipates that increased visibility on ARPU expansion and adoption milestones will drive better sentiment on M365 Copilot, potentially leading to positive revisions in future estimates [18][22]. Capital Expenditures - The report discusses expectations for total capex of approximately $20 billion in F1Q and F2Q, with a total of $78 to $85 billion projected for FY25 [24][25]. - It highlights that the capex-implied Azure AI revenue opportunity is estimated to ramp from $8.0 to $18.6 billion in FY25, increasing to $25.8 to $60.2 billion by FY27 [8][25]. Gross Margins and EPS - Concerns regarding rising AI investments are expected to pressure gross margins, with projections indicating a compression of approximately 200-250bps in FY25 [31][34]. - The report suggests that operating expense discipline could help moderate overall operating margin compression, while OpenAI losses may become a growing concern [34][32].