摩根士丹利：投资者介绍_政策转向_触发因素及下一步行动

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses a modest quarter-on-quarter growth improvement for 2024/25, but sustainable reflation remains distant, indicating a long and drawn-out battle ahead [3] - A policy pivot has been triggered by various factors, including low job market confidence and the need for debt restructuring to facilitate economic recovery [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of a consumption-focused fiscal stimulus to drive economic rebalancing towards consumption [14] Section 1: Cyclical Outlook - The economic outlook for 2024/25 suggests a base case of quarter-on-quarter acceleration in Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [3] - The report highlights lessons from Japan, noting the profound negative impact on wage growth amid persistent deflation, particularly affecting lower-income earners [6] - A significant one-time debt swap is estimated to resolve implicit local debt, with a size of approximately RMB 6 trillion over multiple years [9] - The "5R" growth strategy includes restructuring, rebalancing, reflation, reform, and rekindling, with expected progress by the end of 2025 [10] Section 2: Structural Outlook - The report indicates that China is better positioned than Japan after the bubble burst, with lower asset price inflation and room for further catch-up growth [24] - China's urbanization ratio is expected to continue rising, supported by upgrade demand and ongoing urbanization [22] - The report notes that China's inbound tourism revenue is projected to grow at an 11% CAGR from 2019 to 2033, indicating meaningful upside potential [35] Section 3: Regulatory Reset - The report outlines a shift from a "growth first" approach to balancing growth and sustainability, with new policy priorities focusing on social equality, data security, and tech self-sufficiency [40] - It highlights the need for a smarter, greener, and more market-oriented urbanization strategy, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure and labor mobility [48] Section 4: Global Emerging Trends - The report discusses the early innings of AI diffusion, predicting that 2024 will be a significant year for adopters of AI technology [53] - It highlights the potential for decarbonization, estimating that the energy transition to low carbon fuels will drive over USD 500 billion in cumulative cost savings through 2030 [65]