摩根士丹利：中国股票策略_A股情绪因市场成交量萎缩而大幅下跌

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the A-share market, advising a focus on dividend yield plays and earnings certainty due to expected high market volatility [2][9]. Core Insights - A-share investor sentiment has significantly decreased, with the Weighted MSASI dropping by 68 percentage points to 82% and the Simple MSASI down by 69 percentage points to 75% compared to the previous week [2][5]. - Recent macroeconomic data has shown broad-based slippage, with CPI growth at 0.4% year-on-year, missing expectations of 0.6%, and PPI remaining sluggish at -0.6% month-on-month [4][9]. - Southbound net inflows continued for the 32nd consecutive week, totaling US$3.8 billion during October 10-16, with year-to-date net inflows reaching US$68.4 billion [3]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - The average daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, Equity Futures, and Northbound decreased by 19%, 28%, 35%, and 23% respectively during the period of October 10-16 compared to the previous cycle [2][4]. - The RSI-30D decreased by 9 percentage points compared to the prior cut-off date [2]. Macroeconomic Indicators - Credit growth has slowed, with M1 year-on-year growth hitting a record low of -7.4%, indicating weak credit demand from the corporate sector [4]. - Export growth has unexpectedly declined due to supply disruptions and weakening global demand, as reflected in the downtrend of the global manufacturing PMI [4]. Policy and Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current policy framework indicates a gradual approach to fiscal measures, with a lack of commitment to scale and consumption stimulus raising concerns [8][9]. - The report recommends focusing on stock selection and downside protection, as existing market valuations have incorporated substantial optimism regarding reflationary measures [9][10].