摩根士丹利：医疗保健房地产投资信托基金 3Q24 收益预览_牛市是新基础_预计 25 年将继续表现出色

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Welltower Inc. (WELL), American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR), and an "Equal-weight" rating for Ventas Inc. (VTR) [5][10][36]. Core Insights - The healthcare REIT sector is expected to continue outperforming in 2025, driven by strong supply-demand dynamics and external growth opportunities, particularly in senior housing [4][10]. - The report anticipates solid third-quarter results for healthcare REITs, with potential upside risks to estimates due to robust fundamentals and investment activity [4][10]. - The healthcare REIT subsector has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date return of +33%, significantly outperforming the broader REIT market [4][10]. Summary by Company Welltower Inc. (WELL) - Price target raised from $115 to $135, reflecting a 29x multiple on 2025 estimated FFO of $4.58 [5][10]. - Expected 3Q FFO to be above consensus, with a guidance raise of +$0.02 to $4.19 (+15.4% YoY) [4][19]. - Strong occupancy recovery in senior housing, with SHOP same-store NOI growth projected at 21.7% [15][18]. Ventas Inc. (VTR) - Price target increased from $57 to $65, based on a 19.5x multiple on 2025 estimated FFO of $3.34 [5][10]. - Anticipated 3Q FFO to be in line with consensus, with a guidance raise of +$0.01 to $3.16 (+5.9% YoY) [4][21]. - Occupancy growth accelerated to +350bps YoY in August, indicating strong demand [4][22]. American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) - Price target raised from $22 to $27, reflecting a 19.5x multiple on 2025 estimated FFO of $1.40 [5][10]. - Expected 3Q FFO to be in line with consensus, with a guidance raise of +$0.02 to $1.27 (-13% YoY due to IPO) [4][23]. - Strong performance in same-store occupancy, with improvements noted in both ISHC and SHOP segments [4][23]. Healthpeak Properties Inc. (DOC) - Price target remains unchanged at $23.50, based on a 12.5x multiple on 2025 estimated FFO of $1.85 [5][10]. - Expected 3Q FFO to be above consensus, with management likely to reiterate guidance [4][25]. - Anticipated same-store NOI growth of 4.2% in 3Q, with a focus on lab leasing activity [15][25].