摩根大通：美国独立电力生产商不要停止相信，坚持那种权力感

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Independent Power Producers (IPPs) Constellation Energy (CEG), Talen Energy (TLN), and Vistra (VST) with an "Overweight" (OW) rating for all three companies [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive sector view for IPPs, driven by structural tailwinds such as manufacturing onshoring, electrification trends, and data center development, which are expected to significantly increase power demand [1][2]. - The report anticipates that competitive market supply growth will not keep pace with this rising demand, allowing IPPs to capture outsized margins for an extended period [1]. - The demand for firm, carbon-free power is expected to surge, particularly benefiting nuclear power, which is seen as a unique and scarce offering that will command a premium [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Ratings and Price Targets - CEG has a market cap of $88.14 billion, with a price target of $342 by December 2025 [3]. - TLN has a market cap of $10.22 billion, with a price target of $268 by December 2025 [3]. - VST has a market cap of $44.84 billion, with a price target of $178 by December 2025 [3]. Power Demand Growth - The report notes a significant increase in power demand forecasts, with a five-year outlook now at +4.7%, up from +2.6% [2][16]. - The growth is attributed to trends in onshoring, electrification, and data center expansion, with ERCOT estimating an additional +40,000 MW of load growth by 2030 [16]. Competitive Positioning - VST is positioned as the top pick due to its attractive ERCOT exposure and gas generation optionality [2]. - TLN is noted for its near pure-play PJM generation model, which offers high leverage to PJM pricing trends [8]. - CEG is recognized for its industry-leading nuclear fleet, which provides stability and growth visibility [9]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a blended EV/EBITDA multiple to establish price targets, with a firm multiple of 12.5x and a spot multiple of 6.0x [11]. - The valuation reflects high-quality cash flows and risk-adjusted future nuclear contracting upside [11]. Financial Outlook - CEG targets a +13% base EPS CAGR through 2030, with upside potential from nuclear contracting [9]. - TLN is expected to see significant EBITDA growth driven by its Susquehanna deal with Amazon [8]. - VST anticipates double-digit EBITDA growth, supported by its integrated retail business and nuclear exposure [10].