宏观动态点评：“四个取消、四个降低、两个增加”稳地产政策发力

Policy Measures - The government has implemented a "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" policy to stabilize the real estate market[2] - The "four cancellations" include the removal of purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price limits, and the classification of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties[2] - The "four reductions" involve lowering housing provident fund loan rates, down payment ratios, existing loan rates, and tax burdens for "selling old to buy new" transactions[2] - The "two increases" consist of adding 1 million units for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations and increasing the credit scale for "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan by year-end[2] Economic Impact - The real estate sector accounted for 5.85% of GDP in 2023, indicating its significant influence on the national economy[2] - The policies aim to address the declining investment in real estate development, with a marginal narrowing of the decline in investment observed in August 2023[2] - The increase in credit for "white list" projects is expected to enhance financing support for quality real estate projects, aligning with the central government's directives[2] Market Outlook - The implementation of these policies is anticipated to improve transaction volumes in the second-hand housing market, which showed an upward trend in September 2023[2] - The shift towards stock development is necessary due to changing supply-demand dynamics, including urbanization and aging population trends[2] - The renovation initiatives are expected to facilitate the digestion of existing housing stock and boost market activity[2] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected corporate profits, increased volatility in overseas markets, and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[2]