中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20241022

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a "steady growth" macroeconomic policy approach, with a recommended asset allocation order of stocks > commodities > bonds > cash [2][4] - Economic data indicates that China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 949,746 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [3] - The report highlights the importance of recent government initiatives, such as the plan to implement 1 million urban village renovations and dilapidated housing improvements, which are expected to stimulate regional real estate investment and public facility management [4] Economic Overview - The GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.3% in Q1, 4.7% in Q2, and 4.6% in Q3, indicating a gradual slowdown [3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is focusing on stabilizing the capital market through tools like stock repurchase and targeted loans, while ensuring that credit funds do not illegally enter the stock market [3] Market Performance - The report notes a rebound in stock and bond markets, with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.98% and the CSI 300 stock index futures increasing by 2.49% [3] - Commodity futures showed a decline, with coking coal futures dropping by 8.43% and iron ore main contracts down by 3.38% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent macroeconomic policies will likely boost economic growth from Q4 2024 to 2025, despite the time required for these policies to take effect [4] - The focus on monetary compensation for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations is expected to increase demand for commercial housing and help reduce existing inventory [4]