Investment Rating - The report suggests that the U.S. remains a premium market for the export of new energy, despite concerns regarding potential policy changes under a Trump administration [4][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the anticipated victory of Trump in the upcoming elections has raised concerns about the future of new energy policies, particularly regarding the potential repeal of the IRA Act. However, internal divisions within the Republican Party and the significant economic contributions of the IRA in Republican districts may hinder any drastic changes [4][11]. - The U.S. new energy market is driven by high project economics, attracting private sector investments, and both political parties may leverage the growth of the new energy sector to achieve economic recovery and job creation [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of the U.S. Elections on the New Energy Sector - Polls from key swing states show a significant lead for Trump, enhancing his expected victory [15][17]. - The U.S. is a crucial market for new energy exports, with solar and storage demand growing rapidly. In 2023, the U.S. added 32.4 GW of solar capacity, a 60% year-on-year increase, and 19.9 GWh of large-scale storage, a 92% increase [19][22]. 2. IRA Act's Economic Contributions - The IRA Act has significantly boosted private investment and job creation in the new energy sector. In 2023, 56% of new jobs in the energy sector were related to clean energy [33][38]. - The IRA has led to the announcement of 334 construction projects across 40 states, expected to create approximately 109,278 new jobs and attract around $126 billion in private investment [38][39]. 3. Challenges to the IRA Act's Repeal or Modification - There are internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding the repeal of the IRA Act, with some members advocating for its retention due to its positive economic impact [44][48]. - The funding distribution of the IRA is already well-established, making it difficult to repeal or significantly modify the act [4][11]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned in the U.S. new energy market, such as global leaders in energy storage like CATL, and companies with strong market channels and brand advantages in solar and storage, such as Sungrow and Sungrow Power Supply [4][11].
电力设备行业专题研究:大选后的美国仍是新能源出海优质市场
Guolian Securities·2024-10-22 04:03