点评报告：内外环境复杂化，三季度GDP出现回调

Economic Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to 2023[2] - The industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year in the first nine months, remaining stable compared to the previous period[6] - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% year-on-year, marking the first halt in the decline of investment growth this year[13] Demand and Consumption - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, down 0.4 percentage points from the first half of the year[10] - In September, retail sales grew by 3.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from August, driven by policy support and increased consumer confidence[10] - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 30,941 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year[10] Trade and External Environment - In September, exports totaled $303.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, but down 6.3 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Imports amounted to $222 billion, growing by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight decline from the previous month[19] - The trade surplus was $81.71 billion, reflecting a narrowing trade balance amid external uncertainties[14] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year in September, down 0.2 percentage points from August, indicating weak demand[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - New RMB loans in September totaled 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan, indicating weak credit demand[5]