动力电池行业周报：2024年9月商用车销量表现较为疲弱

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on monitoring upstream raw material price trends, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations. The long-term prospects for the domestic and international new energy vehicle industry are deemed certain, making the sector worthy of attention. It is expected that individual stock performance will show differentiation, suggesting a focus on leading companies in specific segments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 70,500 CNY/ton, down 4.73% from the previous week. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 73,500 CNY/ton, down 4.55% [2][62]. - The price of 523 single crystal power materials is 109,500 CNY/ton, down 0.08 CNY/ton from last week. The price of 622 multi-crystal materials is 109,000 CNY/ton, down 0.03 CNY/ton. The price of high-nickel 811 multi-crystal power materials is 145,000 CNY/ton, down 0.05 CNY/ton [2][74]. 2. Downstream Demand - In the first nine months of 2024, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 685.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%. Power battery sales accounted for 525.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% [3][106]. - In September 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.307 million and 1.287 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 48.8% and 42.3%, increasing market share to 45.8% [3][107]. 3. Market Dynamics - The commercial vehicle market is under pressure, with September 2024 wholesale sales down 23.49% year-on-year, while cumulative sales from January to September decreased by 1.56% [3][108]. - The report highlights that the overall market for commercial vehicles continues to face downward pressure, particularly in the truck segment, which saw a 25.73% year-on-year decline in September [3][108]. 4. Price Trends - The report notes that the prices of various materials, including lithium carbonate and battery materials, are experiencing downward pressure due to market dynamics and demand fluctuations [2][74][90]. - The average price of electrolyte remains stable, with phosphoric acid lithium electrolyte at 18,600 CNY/ton and ternary/conventional power electrolyte at 25,300 CNY/ton [90]. 5. Production and Inventory - The production of lithium carbonate for the week of October 12-18, 2024, was approximately 13,500 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.36% from the previous week [65]. - The inventory of lithium hydroxide is reported at 16,300 tons, down 1.21% from the previous week, indicating a stable supply situation [73]. 6. Battery Cell Market - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is stable at 0.46 CNY/Wh, while the price for square power cells (lithium iron phosphate) is 0.37 CNY/Wh [105]. - The total production of power and other batteries in September 2024 was 111.3 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [106]. 7. Company Performance - CATL reported a third-quarter revenue of 92.278 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.48%, while net profit increased by 25.97% [110].