流动性周度观察

Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of CNY 211.5 billion from October 12 to October 18, 2024, with a reverse repo net injection of CNY 647.5 billion and MLF maturity of CNY 789 billion[6] - As of last Friday, the reverse repo balance stood at CNY 994.4 billion, while the MLF balance was CNY 60,890 billion[6] Government Bond Issuance - Government bond issuance decreased to CNY 424.7 billion this week, with maturities at CNY 274.6 billion, resulting in a net financing of CNY 137.5 billion[7] - Next week, government bond issuance is expected to rise to CNY 708.7 billion, with maturities at CNY 444.3 billion, leading to a net financing of CNY 240.25 billion[7] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - This week, interbank certificates of deposit saw a net financing decrease, with issuance at CNY 614.78 billion and maturities at CNY 521.74 billion, resulting in a net financing of CNY 93.04 billion[9] - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 1.95%, up 3.1 basis points from last week[14] Funding Rate Changes - The average DR001 rate decreased by 11.3 basis points to 1.41%, while the R001 rate fell by 13.4 basis points to 1.53%[17] - The overall funding rate showed a downward trend, with the R007 rate declining by 30.4 basis points to 1.79%[17] Investment Recommendations - Increased fiscal measures are expected to support local government bonds, potentially leading to further government bond issuance, which may disrupt liquidity[20] - The market has high expectations for interest rate cuts, and institutions are advised to adopt a right-side participation strategy in the bond market[20]