9月宏观经济数据一览

Economic Indicators - GDP growth for Q3 2024 is expected to be 4.6% for the quarter and 4.8% year-to-date[1] - The PMI for September 2024 is projected at 49.8, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[1] - Industrial value-added growth is reported at 5.4% for September 2024, with a cumulative growth of 4.6% year-to-date[1] Financial Metrics - M2 money supply growth is expected at 6.8% in September 2024, while the balance of loans from financial institutions is projected to grow by 8.1%[1] - New social financing is expected to reach CNY 37,634 million, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.2% in September 2024, with a cumulative growth of 2.3% year-to-date[1] Trade and Employment - Imports (in USD) are expected to grow by 0.3%, while exports are projected to increase by 2.4% in September 2024[1] - The unemployment rate is reported at 5.1% for September 2024, slightly up from 5.0% in August[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is reported at 3.4%, with manufacturing investment at 5.2% and real estate investment showing a decline of -22.2%[1] - The sales area of commercial housing has decreased by -10.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant downturn in the real estate sector[1] Risks - Potential risks include economic growth falling short of expectations, policy measures not meeting forecasts, and changes in Federal Reserve policies[1]