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Greener shores: Brazil’s $100 billion decarbonization opportunity
麦肯锡·2024-10-23 00:08

Industry Investment Rating - Brazil has a significant decarbonization opportunity, estimated to add 100billiontoGDPandcreate6.4millionjobsby2030[3]CoreViewpoints−Brazil′snaturalendowmentspositionitasakeyplayeringlobaldecarbonizationefforts,withpotentialtoexportlow−carbonmaterialsandservices[1][3]−Thecountrycouldleadinrenewableenergy,bio−basedsolutions,andnaturalclimatesolutions,contributingtoglobalemissionreductions[3][4][17]EnergySolutionsPortfolio−Brazil′srenewableenergypotential,includingwind,solar,andbiomass,coulddrivedecarbonizationandcreatea100 billion to GDP and create 6.4 million jobs by 2030 [3] Core Viewpoints - Brazil's natural endowments position it as a key player in global decarbonization efforts, with potential to export low-carbon materials and services [1][3] - The country could lead in renewable energy, bio-based solutions, and natural climate solutions, contributing to global emission reductions [3][4][17] Energy Solutions Portfolio - Brazil's renewable energy potential, including wind, solar, and biomass, could drive decarbonization and create a 90 billion market by 2040 [5][6] - Wind and solar energy costs are expected to decrease by 27% and 46% respectively by 2040, potentially becoming the main power sources [6] - Green hydrogen production in Brazil is projected to reach 2.50perkilogramby2030,makingitgloballycompetitive[7]Bio−basedSolutions−Brazilcouldleadinsustainablebiofuels,withamarketopportunityof2.50 per kilogram by 2030, making it globally competitive [7] Bio-based Solutions - Brazil could lead in sustainable biofuels, with a market opportunity of 40 billion by 2040, driven by second-generation ethanol and sustainable aviation fuel [8] - The biocarbon market could reach 3−4billionby2030,supportinggreenpigironproductionwith903-4 billion by 2030, supporting green pig iron production with 90% lower emissions [9] - Biomethane production could exceed 15 billion by 2040, utilizing waste and byproducts [9] Energy and Resource Efficiency - Brazil's industrial energy intensity increased by 2% annually from 2005 to 2021, highlighting the need for efficiency improvements [11][12] - Heavy industries, representing 70% of the industrial segment, could benefit from material substitution and advanced energy management systems [14] - Recycling rates in Brazil are low, with only 4% of municipal solid waste recycled, compared to over 30% in the EU, India, and the US [15] Natural Climate Solutions - Brazil has 15% of the global potential for low-cost natural climate solutions, with opportunities in carbon removal certificates and deforestation prevention [17][18] - Land use and agriculture sectors could contribute to emissions reductions of 2.9-3.3 GtCO2e by 2050 through restoration and improved practices [19][21] - Brazil's CO2 sequestration potential could generate 16−26billionannuallyandcreate880,000jobsthroughrestorationandafforestationprojects[24]EconomicImpact−A"greenpowerhouse"scenariocouldboostBrazil′sGDPby16-26 billion annually and create 880,000 jobs through restoration and afforestation projects [24] Economic Impact - A "green powerhouse" scenario could boost Brazil's GDP by 100 billion by 2050 and create 6.4 million jobs, with a carbon price of 35permetrictonofCO2e[25]−Brazilcouldeliminate8035 per metric ton of CO2e [25] - Brazil could eliminate 80% of emissions with a carbon price of 15 per metric ton and 95% with $20 per metric ton, significantly lower than other major emitters [24]