川财证券：研究所晨报-20241023

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant acceleration in the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in September 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous value [4][9] - The industrial production showed marginal improvement, with the industrial added value for September 2024 growing by 5.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous value [4][9] - The GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2024 was reported at 4.8%, aligning with market expectations, while the government aims to achieve a 5% growth target for the year [4][9] Economic Indicators - In the first nine months of 2024, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.1% [4][9] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.2% year-on-year in the same period, indicating strong support from industrial policies for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector [9] - The report notes that the resilience of exports has been a key factor in supporting industrial production, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 7.0%, and 8.9% for industrial products in June, July, and August respectively [4][9] Policy and Market Trends - The report suggests that the government will continue to implement policies to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to further enhance retail sales growth [9] - The Canadian government's recent announcement regarding tariff exemptions for electric vehicles imported from China is expected to impact the revenue of the new energy vehicle and battery industry chain [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies and the need for a robust policy toolbox to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market [3][5]