高盛：中国房地产2025年展望，触底在望

Industry Outlook - The China property industry is expected to reach an inflection point in the ongoing downward spiral, driven by a comprehensive policy easing package aimed at stabilizing property prices [2] - The government plans to address unsold inventory, including construction-in-progress and raw land, potentially through local government special bonds, with unsold inventory estimated at Rmb93tn (USD13tn) by end-2024 [2] - Property prices could fall another 20-25% from prior peak levels, but incremental government efforts in housing destocking are expected to stabilize the market in the coming years [2] Fiscal Support and Market Stabilization - The base-case industry forecast assumes Rmb8tn (US$1.1tn, 5.8% of 2025E GDP) in additional fiscal support, leading to property price stabilization by late 2025 and a 2% yoy ASP increase in 2027 [3] - Primary market property sales are expected to stabilize around Rmb8tn in 2027, about 40% of the peak, while property new starts are forecast to stabilize at 20% of the peak in 2027 [3] - Without additional stimulus, the property market downturn could be prolonged by another three years [8] Household and Industry Deleveraging - Household deleveraging is expected to continue in 2025 but gradually stabilize in 2026-2027, with total household debt balance growing at an average 3% p.a. in 2024-2027 [19][20] - Household asset value is forecast to fall in the near term but recover in 2026-2027, with real estate assets as a share of total household assets dropping to around 50% [21] - The industry leverage ratio is expected to improve to ~70% by end-2027 from 80% at end-2025, supported by fiscal stimulus and inventory reduction efforts [8][30] Secondary Market Dynamics - Secondary housing transaction volume is expected to grow at an average low-single-digit % p.a. in 2025-2027, with the secondary turnover rate increasing to 1.7% by 2027 [39] - Secondary prices are expected to stabilize in 2026, with an average 2% yoy total secondary housing sales value growth in 2026-2027 [40] - Secondary housing GFA sold/sales are forecast to account for around 50% of nationwide total housing transaction volume/value in 2027 [40] Primary Market Trends - Developers' land banking and new project start activities are expected to shrink further due to liquidity constraints and lower demand, with new starts forecast at -24%/-15%/flat yoy in 2025-2027 [47] - Housing completions are expected to pick up moderately in 2025, but the overall trend remains downward, with property FAI forecast to contract by -15%/-12%/-12% yoy in 2025-2027 [47][62] - The primary market is expected to stabilize in late 2025, with property sales forecast at -9%/-4%/+2% yoy in 2024-2027 [61] Key Risks and Comparisons - Downside risks include insufficient government stimulus and faster-than-expected supply increases and price cuts in the secondary market, potentially prolonging the downturn [68] - Upside risks include a potential recovery in tier-1 cities' property prices, which could spill over to key tier-2 cities, driven by government inventory reduction efforts and improved market confidence [71] - The current cycle shows similarities to Japan's 1990s property downturn, with potential for a short-lived recovery if macro conditions deteriorate further [68][101]