9月物价数据点评：通胀低于预期 政策加快发力

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year, below the expected 0.7% and the previous value of 0.6%[4] - The core CPI fell to a historical low, indicating sluggish recovery in terminal demand[4] - Food prices rose by 2.3%, contributing approximately 0.66 percentage points to the CPI increase, with fresh vegetable prices up by 22.9%[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in September, weaker than the expected -2.5% and the previous -1.8%[4] - The two-year average growth rate of PPI fell to -2.7%, marking a three-month low[7] - The decline in PPI was influenced by insufficient domestic demand and adverse weather conditions affecting production[8] Group 3: Policy Response - The Politburo meeting on September 26 emphasized increasing counter-cyclical adjustments in fiscal and monetary policy to address insufficient domestic demand[2] - Recent monetary and fiscal policies have been implemented to stimulate demand, although the impact may take time to materialize[4] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to support investment recovery[8] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential over-adjustment by the central bank, unexpected inflation, and geopolitical tensions affecting economic recovery[9] - Short-term PPI recovery is possible due to recent government actions and international oil price rebounds[8]