钢铁行业月报：政策驱动稳增长，行业发展有望边际改善

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Recommended" with a maintained rating [3]. Core Viewpoints - The central government has signaled a strong commitment to stabilize growth, which is expected to benefit the steel industry as a low-position cyclical sector, leading to potential excess returns. The demand for steel is transitioning from real estate to high-end manufacturing, with manufacturing expected to continue upgrading, providing rigid support for steel demand [2][3]. - The traditional peak consumption season for steel, "Golden September and Silver October," is anticipated to improve the supply-demand dynamics, catalyzing a rebound in steel prices. Core assets in manufacturing with operational resilience and competitive advantages are expected to see profit recovery and value reassessment [2][3]. Market Overview - The steel sector experienced a decline of 5.55% in the first half of October 2024, with the average stock performance showing 13.64% of stocks rising, 2.27% maintaining, and 84.09% declining [8][10]. - The comprehensive steel price index in China was reported at 91.26 as of September 2024, reflecting a decrease of 2.62% from the previous month. The production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products saw year-on-year declines of 6.10%, 6.70%, and 2.40%, respectively [14][43]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The average operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 sample steel enterprises was 77.95% in September 2024, down 0.87 percentage points month-on-month and 6.29 percentage points year-on-year. The apparent consumption of steel in September was 10,771.0 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.43% [14][20]. - The domestic steel market saw a significant reduction in social inventory, with a total of 7.48 million tons by the end of September, down 20.09% month-on-month and 16.52% year-on-year [29]. Raw Material Analysis - The average price of iron ore (62% Fe) was reported at $93.79 per ton in September 2024, a decrease of 5.12% month-on-month and 22.32% year-on-year. The domestic iron ore import price averaged 660.33 yuan per ton, down 3.51% month-on-month and 27.20% year-on-year [33][39]. - The average price of coking coal was 1,780.95 yuan per ton in September, reflecting a decrease of 30.87 yuan per ton, or 1.70% [39][40]. Price and Profit Trends - The steel market prices showed a trend of first declining and then rising, with the overall market sentiment improving due to favorable monetary policies. The average price of rebar in September was 3,367 yuan per ton, up 1.55% from the previous month [43][48]. - The plate market saw a decline in prices, with the average price of medium-thick plates at 3,285 yuan per ton, down 4.10% month-on-month [48].