当下化工怎么看？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the chemical industry [4]. Core Insights - The chemical industry, particularly basic chemicals and petrochemicals, has shown strong performance in rising market conditions, with high win rates and payoffs compared to benchmark indices [5][9]. - As of October 21, 2024, the overall valuation of the chemical sector remains low historically, with basic chemicals and petrochemicals at 48% and 18% valuation percentiles respectively, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [21][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance of the Chemical Sector in Rising Markets - The report analyzes the performance of the chemical sector against the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, revealing that in 10 typical rising market phases, the petrochemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite 9 times, while basic chemicals outperformed 8 times, with average excess returns of approximately 19% and 22% respectively [5][11]. - Both sectors have shown better elasticity and payoffs compared to the CSI 300, with basic chemicals demonstrating superior performance [13][17]. 2. Attractiveness of Low Valuations in the Chemical Sector - The report highlights that many sub-sectors within basic chemicals are currently undervalued, with several having PE-TTM ratios below 20%, such as carbon black (15%), nitrogen fertilizer (15%), and potassium fertilizer (17%) [22][25]. - In the petrochemical sector, oil and gas extraction has the lowest PE-TTM valuation at 5%, while oilfield services are at 18% [23]. 3. Focus on Low Valuation Core Assets and Growth Directions - The report suggests focusing on low valuation core assets that exhibit resilience in weak demand and significant elasticity in strong demand, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Juhua Co [26]. - It also emphasizes growth sectors that have shown significant cost advantages and growth potential, such as Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical [27]. - The report identifies promising sectors with improving market conditions, including animal nutrition additives and essential pesticides, as well as companies that have successfully expanded internationally in the tire industry [28]. 4. Attention to Low Valuation Dividend Stocks - The report recommends investing in high-quality, high-dividend upstream resources such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which still hold good investment value [29].