未雨绸缪：从细分行业表现回顾美国加征关税的影响

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Elections - As of October 22, 2024, Trump's betting odds are at 59% compared to Harris's 46%[14] - In key swing states like Pennsylvania, Trump's support has surpassed Harris's for the first time since August, with 47.9% vs. 47.6%[14] - Regardless of the election outcome, trade protectionism and tariffs against China are expected to intensify[15] Group 2: Patterns of Tariff Implementation - Tariffs primarily target goods with previously high export growth rates, leading to a decline in both export growth and import share post-implementation[18] - Higher tariffs are concentrated on goods with advanced technology levels, with the first two rounds focusing more on high-value products[18] - Goods with high U.S. dependency on China generally have lower tariff coverage rates[18] Group 3: Export Performance Types - Type 1: Goods significantly affected by tariffs that have not recovered to pre-tariff levels include animal products, minerals, and jewelry[35] - Type 2: Goods showing a "V-shaped" recovery post-tariff include textiles and electrical products, with varying recovery rates[35] - Type 3: Goods minimally impacted by tariffs include animal fats and art, showing strong growth due to policy stimulation and demand shifts[35]