MNSO(MNSO)2024-10-24 00:40Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Miniso Group (MNSO US) with a target price of USD 25.30, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 17.59 [1][2]. Core Insights - Miniso is expected to announce its 3Q24 financial results in mid-November, with projected revenue of RMB 4.57 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%. The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be RMB 708 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5% [5][1]. - The report highlights that domestic revenue is projected to be RMB 2.75 billion, while overseas revenue is expected to reach RMB 1.81 billion, indicating strong growth in international markets [5][1]. - For FY24-26, the revenue estimates are RMB 17.3 billion, RMB 21.3 billion, and RMB 25.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 2.81 billion, RMB 3.48 billion, and RMB 4.16 billion [5][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 3Q24 is expected to be RMB 4.57 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. The adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 708 million, with a net profit margin of 15.5% [1][5]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 19% for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively, with adjusted net profit growth rates of 19%, 24%, and 19% [2][4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 44.0% in 3Q24, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased contributions from overseas direct sales [1][2]. Valuation - The company is valued at a 20x PE for FY24, leading to a target market capitalization of USD 7.9 billion and a target price of USD 25.3 [2][5]. - The report indicates a projected diluted EPS of RMB 8.97 for FY24, increasing to RMB 11.14 in FY25 and RMB 13.30 in FY26 [2][4].