航空供应链点评：GE与RTX发布三季报，飞机供应链问题持续，印证飞机供给逻辑

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the aircraft supply chain, with GE Aerospace reporting a decline in engine deliveries due to component shortages, reflecting a slow recovery in the aviation supply chain [2] - GE has raised its profit forecast for the year three times in seven months, driven by strong service demand and price increases, which have helped offset the decline in engine shipments [2] - RTX has also raised its adjusted profit and sales forecasts for 2024, primarily due to strong demand in aircraft maintenance and defense systems [3] - The report emphasizes the dual drivers of "international + supply" for investment in 2024, with a focus on the recovery opportunities in the aviation and airport sector [3] Summary by Sections Aircraft Supply Chain - GE's engine deliveries for Q3 2024 were 501 units, down from 520 units in the previous year, with a total of 1,392 units delivered in the first nine months, compared to 1,544 units in the same period of 2023 [2] - The LEAP engine production was 1,029 units, down from 1,174 units the previous year, indicating a persistent supply chain issue [2] Market Demand - The demand for aftermarket services has surged due to a lack of new aircraft, with GE's service business growing by 10% driven by increased flight hours and parts sales [3] - RTX's sales for Q3 reached $7.075 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, with defense market growth at 14% and commercial aftermarket growth at 9% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on airlines with improving operational quality and those benefiting from international long-haul capacity shortages, such as 吉祥航空 [3] - Suggested stocks include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Air China, along with global aircraft leasing companies and engine maintenance firms [3][4]