农林牧渔行业专题研究：如何看待9月生猪产能数据？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5]. Core Insights - As of the end of Q3, the national pig inventory stands at 42,694 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 1,535 million heads (down 3.5%) but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1,160 million heads (up 2.8%) [2][6]. - The breeding sow inventory is at 4,062 million heads, down 178 million heads year-on-year (down 4.2%) but up 25 million heads quarter-on-quarter (up 0.6%) [2][6]. - The recovery of sow production capacity began in April 2024, with a continuous increase for three months before a slight decline in August, followed by a return to an upward trend in September [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Breeding Sow Inventory in September - The breeding sow inventory has shown a slight increase, with a total of 4,062 million heads reported, reflecting a recovery trend [12]. - The increase in breeding sow inventory is supported by data from various consulting firms, indicating a stable micro-increment in inventory levels [15][18]. 2. Future Pig Price Trends and Production Capacity Changes - The report anticipates that pig prices will maintain profitability in Q4, driven by a supply shortage due to previous production cuts and seasonal consumption increases [25]. - The breeding sow inventory is expected to continue a stable micro-increment trend, supported by optimistic price expectations and a decrease in feed costs [26][27]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-conviction stocks with low valuations, recommending companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as companies in the veterinary and feed sectors like Haida Group [28].