HKEX(00388) 申万宏源·2024-10-24 06:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [3][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 7%, driven by improved liquidity and supportive policies, leading to record trading volumes in the Hong Kong stock market [3][4]. - Total revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached HKD 159.9 billion, a 2% increase year-on-year, with net profit remaining stable at HKD 92.7 billion [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in IPO fundraising, with Q3 2024 seeing a 391% quarter-on-quarter growth, attributed to major listings such as Midea Group [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of HKD 159.9 billion, up 2% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 92.7 billion, unchanged from the previous year [3][4]. - Q3 2024 net profit was HKD 31.5 billion, reflecting a 7% increase year-on-year [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue contribution from trading and settlement fees increased to 56% in 9M24, up from 53% in 9M23, driven by a recovery in Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [3]. - Revenue from various segments for 9M24 included: - Spot trading: HKD 6.35 billion (+2%) - Equity securities and derivatives: HKD 4.52 billion (-10%) - Commodities: HKD 2.1 billion (+31%) - Data and connectivity: HKD 1.56 billion (+1%) - Company projects: HKD 1.47 billion (+18%) [3][4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market's ADT reached historical highs, with significant contributions from both southbound and northbound trading [3]. - The report anticipates continued positive sentiment in the Hong Kong IPO market due to recent regulatory changes aimed at expediting the listing process [3][4]. Profitability Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of HKD 128 billion, HKD 139 billion, and HKD 151 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8%, 9%, and 8% [3][4].