梅花生物：业绩短期承压，生物科技促成长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 18.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% year-on-year [6][2] - The decline in performance in Q3 2024 was primarily due to the drop in prices of key products such as monosodium glutamate and xanthan gum, along with an increase in financial and R&D expenses [6] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a cumulative dividend payout of 10.85 billion yuan since its listing, representing a cumulative dividend rate of 52.8% [6] - The focus on synthetic biology is expected to open up significant growth opportunities, with plans to reduce costs for products like lysine and threonine through technological advancements [6] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 18.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 17.65%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.83 percentage points [6] - The projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 27.6 billion yuan, 31.8 billion yuan, and 34.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0%, 15%, and 10% respectively [6][7] - The expected net profits for the same period are 2.8 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 3.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -11%, 16%, and 15% respectively [6][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.99 yuan, 1.15 yuan, and 1.32 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7]