钢铁9月月报：9月钢材库存持续去化，政策窗口开启利于改善行业盈利

Investment Rating - Investment rating: "Recommended" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Steel supply continued to decline in September, with demand showing a "peak season not booming" situation, leading to a slow recovery in steel production [8][19] - Despite a slight improvement in steel enterprise profitability, the overall profit margin remains below 10%, suppressing production enthusiasm among steel mills [2][3] - The macroeconomic policies introduced in late September are expected to gradually improve terminal demand for steel, providing upward momentum for steel prices [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. September Steel Supply and Demand - In September, crude steel production was 77.07 million tons, down 6.1% year-on-year, while steel product output was 117.31 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year [8][11] - The average weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.76 million tons, down 7.5% year-on-year [12][13] - Inventory levels for various steel products decreased significantly, with rebar inventory down 30.3% compared to the end of August [10][11] 2. October Macroeconomic Policies - The introduction of favorable policies related to real estate is expected to stabilize the construction industry gradually [19][21] - Infrastructure investment growth remains relatively stable, with 2.3 trillion yuan in special bond funds available for use in the next three months [25][26] 3. Steel Mill Production and Raw Material Prices - Steel mills are experiencing slow recovery in production, with raw material prices showing a downward trend [3][4] - The average profit margin for steel mills improved slightly to 9.74% in September, but profitability remains a concern [2][3] 4. Improvement in Profitability - The average profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel products showed signs of narrowing losses, with rebar profit improving by over 200 yuan per ton [2][3] - As of October 18, the profitability of steel enterprises rebounded to 74.46%, indicating a potential increase in production enthusiasm [2][3] 5. Steel Price Trends - The steel price index for September was 91.26, down 2.6% month-on-month and down 16.3% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in prices [14][15] - Prices for long products showed better performance compared to flat products, with rebar prices increasing by 2.2% month-on-month [15][16]