2025年采矿及金属行业十大业务风险与机遇研究报告

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights the mining and metals sector as facing significant challenges and opportunities, particularly in the context of the energy transition and the need for sustainable practices [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The energy transition is disrupting the mining and metals sector, requiring significant transformation through innovation, collaboration, and agility [2] - Capital discipline remains a top priority, with miners needing to balance growth and returns while navigating tough financing conditions [3][12] - Strategic risks such as resource depletion and new project development are becoming more prominent, with long lead times and declining ore grades posing challenges [4][33] - Environmental stewardship is increasingly critical, with miners focusing on nature-positive initiatives and sustainability performance [22][23] - Geopolitical uncertainty is rising, with governments prioritizing self-sufficiency in strategic minerals and metals, leading to complex supply chain dynamics [26][27] Key Risks and Opportunities Capital - Capital is the number one risk, with miners needing to shift focus beyond yield to invest in future value [3][12] - M&A and portfolio repositioning are accelerating, with companies divesting noncore assets and spinning off high-growth assets [13][14] - Miners are exploring alternative sources of capital, including commodity traders, supplier funding, and export credit finance [18][19] Environmental Stewardship - Miners are elevating environmental stewardship, with 46% of respondents confident in meeting nature-positive obligations [22][23] - Waste management and recycling are gaining attention, with progressive miners capturing value from waste through improved mining performance and closed-loop systems [24] Geopolitics - Governments are prioritizing self-sufficiency in strategic minerals, with Japan and Saudi Arabia offering subsidies and incentives for new projects [26][27] - Resource nationalism is affecting tax rules, with governments needing to balance national revenue goals and long-term investment returns [28] Resource and Reserve Depletion - A supply shortfall is likely if investment in exploration and mine development does not increase, with declining ore grades and long lead times exacerbating the issue [33][34] - Exploration budgets are up 37% compared to 2019, with a shift towards copper, lithium, and nickel exploration [34] License to Operate - Miners must enhance community impact and Indigenous trust to build long-term value and secure their license to operate [42][43] - Mine closure strategies are critical, with only 35% of legacy assets and 50% of operating assets having closure plans [44] Rising Costs and Productivity - Structural costs are high due to sticky inflation, particularly in labor and energy, impacting productivity [47][48] - ESG priorities are competing with productivity, with 33% of respondents agreeing that ESG focus is distracting from productivity [48] Climate Change - Miners are under pressure to improve transparency in emissions reporting, with Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity declining by 10% since 2020 [56][57] - Integrating renewable energy into mining operations is challenging due to high capital costs and technological limitations [58] New Projects - Regulatory issues and higher taxes are prolonging the time from discovery to production, with the US taking 29 years to develop a mine [65][66] - Capital intensity of projects is increasing due to inflation, lower ore grades, and infrastructural issues [66] Changing Business Models - Miners are repositioning portfolios for growth, with vertical integration into advanced materials and diversification into the clean energy value chain [70][71] - Recycling and circular economy initiatives are gaining traction, with 42% of respondents considering integrating recycling into their business models [71] Innovation - Innovation is critical for sustainable mining, with 54% of respondents anticipating greater investment in innovation over the next 12 months [75][76] - Collaboration is essential for driving innovation, with 50% of respondents stating there is not enough collaboration in the sector [76][77]