摩根士丹利：中国 – 天然气_天然气峰会要点_更好的定价带来更强劲的需求

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Attractive" investment rating to the gas utilities industry in China [1]. Core Insights - The gas demand in China has shown a strong growth of approximately 10% in the first nine months of 2024, primarily driven by gas power and LNG trucks [1]. - The overall gas supply is expected to be abundant for the upcoming winter, although short-term shortages may occur due to extreme weather conditions [1][2]. - The report anticipates that global LNG prices will remain stable before trending lower in mid-2025, influenced by new supply additions and geopolitical factors [1][4]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Outlook - The demand for gas in China is projected to remain resilient, with significant contributions from LNG trucks and gas power generation [1][4]. - A weak La Niña situation is confirmed for this winter, but temperature predictions remain uncertain, impacting gas demand [2][3]. - Domestic gas, Russian piped gas, imported LNG, and gas storage are all expected to show steady year-on-year growth, covering overall gas demand during winter under normal climate conditions [2]. Pricing and Economic Factors - Better pricing of LNG relative to other energy sources is likely to boost natural gas demand across various sectors, including transportation and power generation [4]. - The report suggests that the economics of gas storage and peak shaving facilities need reform to ensure costs are passed through to users [3]. Long-term Outlook - Natural gas is expected to continue growing as a key energy source in China, substituting for coal and supporting renewable energy initiatives until 2035-2040 [4]. - The future development of natural gas will depend on its synergy with renewable power and pricing dynamics [4].