摩根士丹利：中国快递_2024年9月市场分析

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [4] Core Insights - YTO led year-over-year (YoY) volume and revenue growth in September 2024, likely benefiting from a low base [2] - SF's international revenue increased by 23% YoY, driven by rising seaborne shipping rates and growing air cargo demand [2] - A mild month-over-month (MoM) average selling price (ASP) improvement suggests that more profit from price hikes is being allocated to network partners rather than headquarters [2] - On a two-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) basis, YTO, STO, Yunda, and SF's volume increased by 22%, 28%, 17%, and 9%, respectively [2] Volume Summary - YTO recorded the fastest volume growth at 28% YoY, followed by STO and Yunda at 22% each, while SF's volume grew by 13% YoY [2][3] - In 3Q24, YTO outperformed with 28.1% YoY volume growth, followed by STO at 27.9%, Yunda at 23.7%, and SF at 14.5% [3] Revenue Summary - YTO led with 20% YoY revenue growth, followed by STO and Yunda at 17% and 7%, respectively, while SF's express revenue grew by only 5% YoY [3] - In 3Q24, revenue growth for STO and YTO was approximately 21% YoY, while Yunda and SF saw growth of 11% and 8%, respectively [3] ASP Summary - Yunda experienced the largest YoY ASP drop of 12.5%, while YTO and SF saw declines of 7% each, and STO's ASP dropped by 4% [3] - On a MoM basis, the ASP for Yunda, STO, and YTO improved by 0.6-1.0%, while SF's ASP grew by 2% [3] Market Share Insights - In September 2024, YTO achieved a market share of 15.4%, gaining 1.2 percentage points YoY, while SF's market share declined by 0.4 percentage points to 7.6% [5] - On a two-year CAGR basis, market share changes for YTO, STO, Yunda, and SF were 1.2ppt, 0.4ppt, 0.4ppt, and -0.4ppt, respectively [2][5]