摩根大通：中国房地产国家统计局数据_9月无改善，符合预期

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the China property sector, recommending to buy quality State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) on dips, specifically mentioning CR Land, CR Mixc, and Poly PS [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the property market continues to show weaknesses in sales, construction activities, and home prices as of September, with expectations for a rebound in October due to recent policy easing [1]. - Residential sales value dropped 17% year-on-year (Y/Y) in September, with a forecast of a 20% decline for the full year 2024 [1]. - New starts in construction declined 21% Y/Y in September, with a full-year forecast of a 20% decline [1]. - Completions saw a slight improvement, dropping 31% Y/Y in September, with a full-year forecast of a 15% decline [1]. - Home prices showed a marginal month-on-month (M/M) decline, with primary home prices decreasing by 0.71% in September [1]. - Retail sales improved by 3.2% Y/Y in September, indicating some positive consumer sentiment [1]. Sales Performance - Residential sales value decreased by 17% Y/Y in September, driven by an 11% drop in volume and a 7% drop in average selling price (ASP) [1]. - Compared to the four-year average, September sales were 39% below, showing slight improvement from a 44% drop in August [1]. - The report forecasts a 20% Y/Y decline in sales for FY24, implying an 8% decline for the remainder of the year [1]. Construction Activity - New starts in construction declined by 21% Y/Y in September, worsening from a 17% decline in August [1]. - New starts were 53% below the four-year average in September, indicating continued caution among developers [1]. - The full-year forecast for new starts is a 20% Y/Y decline, suggesting a 14% decline for the rest of the year [1]. Completion Trends - Overall completions dropped 31% Y/Y in September, showing a mild improvement from a 37% decline in August [1]. - Completions were 22% below the four-year average in September, with a full-year forecast of a 15% Y/Y drop [1]. Home Price Trends - Primary home prices saw a marginal M/M decline of 0.71% in September, with only three out of 70 cities reporting an M/M increase [1]. - Secondary home prices also experienced a slight improvement, with a decline of 0.93% M/M in September [1]. Retail Sales - Retail sales grew by 3.2% Y/Y in September, improving from a 2.1% growth in August, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [1].