Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to China Tower [1][9][16] Core Insights - China Tower's 3Q24 results were mixed, with total revenue growth decelerating from 4% year-over-year (yoy) in 2Q24 to 2% in 3Q24, primarily due to a slowdown in the TSP business, despite steady performance in the Two Wings segment [1][9] - EBITDA growth improved slightly from 3.4% to 3.7% yoy in 3Q24, attributed to stringent cost control measures, while net profit growth rebounded from 9% to 13% yoy due to slower depreciation and amortization (D&A) expense increases and reduced finance costs [1][9][2] - The report anticipates a positive short-term reaction in China Tower's share price due to solid earnings improvement, although it expresses concerns that consensus earnings estimates may be overly optimistic, leading to potential downward revisions that could negatively impact the share price in the medium term [1][7][9] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Total revenue growth slowed from 4% yoy in 2Q24 to 2% in 3Q24, driven by a notable slowdown in the TSP business [1][9] - TSP revenue growth decreased from 4% yoy in 2Q24 to 1% in 3Q24, with tower leasing and DAS revenue growth dropping significantly [3][9] Earnings and Profitability - EBITDA growth increased from 3.4% to 3.7% yoy in 3Q24, supported by reduced repair and maintenance expenses [2][9] - Net profit growth accelerated from 11% in 1Q24 and 9% in 2Q24 to 13% in 3Q24, benefiting from improved EBITDA, slower D&A expense increases, and lower finance costs [2][9] Business Segments - The Two Wings business showed mixed results, with energy operations experiencing a decline for the first time, while Smart Tower revenue increased from 14.5% yoy in 2Q24 to 17% in 3Q24 [4][9] - Overall, the Two Wings business maintained steady growth at approximately 10% yoy in 3Q24 [4][9] Market Expectations - The consensus for China Tower's 2024 revenue, EBITDA, and earnings stands at RMB 98 billion, RMB 66 billion, and RMB 11 billion respectively, implying growth rates of 7%, 5%, and 18% for 4Q24 [6][9] - The report suggests that these consensus numbers are likely to be revised downward following the latest results [6][9]
摩根大通：中国铁塔_ 2024 年第三季度业绩好坏参半，收入疲软，但由于严格的成本控制，盈利有所改善