摩根大通：小鹏汽车H&ADR 被列入积极催化剂观察名单

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to XPeng with a price target of HK$53.00, indicating a potential upside of approximately 30-40% from the current price of HK$42.45 [3][11][13]. Core Insights - XPeng is placed on "Positive Catalyst Watch" ahead of two significant events: the XPeng Technology Day on October 24 and the 3Q24 results announcement in late November, where a strong performance is anticipated [12][18]. - The report forecasts a substantial increase in vehicle deliveries from approximately 46.5k units in 3Q24 to around 82k units in 4Q24, driven by new model launches [13][18]. - XPeng's sales volume is projected to grow by 72% year-on-year in 2025, reaching approximately 310k units, supported by the introduction of new models [13][18]. Summary by Sections Upcoming Events - XPeng Technology Day (Oct 24): Anticipated announcements include new product strategies, potentially introducing non-BEV or EREV models, and advancements in autonomous driving technology using visual-based sensors [12][18]. - 3Q24 Results (Late Nov): Expected to exceed consensus estimates by approximately 23%, driven by higher gross profit margins and strong vehicle sales [9][18]. Financial Projections - 3Q24 Estimates: Revenue is projected at RMB 11,075 million with a gross profit margin of 7.9%, while net profit is expected to be a loss of RMB 1,410 million [9]. - 4Q24 Estimates: Revenue is forecasted at RMB 16,577 million, with a projected delivery of 82k units, reflecting a 77% increase from 3Q24 [9][18]. Market Trends - The report highlights a growing trend in the NEV market, with PHEV and EREV vehicles expected to account for approximately 60% of total NEV sales in China by 2030, up from 34% last year [12][18]. - XPeng's collaboration with Volkswagen is expected to enhance product development and improve margins through increased licensing fees [5][18]. Valuation Metrics - The price target of HK$53 is based on a blended average of 1.2x one-year-forward price-to-sales and 1.1x EV/sales, reflecting expectations of sector multiple expansion [14][19].