美国大选对全球能源与电气机械设备市场的趋势性影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for the US energy sector, indicating that the expected total return over the next 12-18 months is anticipated to be in line with the relevant market benchmark [3]. Core Insights - The upcoming US election is highly competitive, with polls showing both candidates nearly tied. The election outcome is expected to influence energy policies, but the fundamental policy basis is likely to remain unchanged regardless of the winner [1][2]. - Trump's energy policy is expected to favor traditional energy sources, easing restrictions on traditional energy companies and promoting capital expenditures in oil and gas to lower prices. In contrast, Harris is likely to continue Biden's focus on clean energy and climate governance, with a moderate approach to natural gas and nuclear power [1][2]. - Both parties have reached a consensus on certain policies, such as the IRA Act, which will continue to operate irrespective of the election results due to its positive impact on employment and social issues [1][2]. Summary by Sections Energy Policy Differences - Trump's administration would likely push for greater investment in natural gas and nuclear power, while Harris's approach may be more gradual and fiscally constrained, particularly regarding clean energy subsidies [2]. - The report highlights that under any administration, utility companies will need to accelerate investments to meet the rising energy demands driven by AI applications, with projected electricity consumption from global data centers reaching approximately 2.2 trillion kWh by 2030, which is 3.6 times the level in 2022 [2]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies related to energy consumption in data centers, including Constellation, Vistra, and Cameco, as well as those with strong overseas production capabilities like Hitachi [3]. - It also emphasizes the expected annual growth rates for utility investments: 8.2% for power generation, 8.5% for transmission, and 9.6% for distribution from 2024 to 2030, which will drive demand for electrical equipment at an average annual growth rate of about 13% [2][3].