商贸零售：途虎深度系列2：复盘美国汽车后市场-弱周期长坡厚雪大赛道（行业篇）

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive aftermarket industry in China, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The U.S. automotive aftermarket exhibits characteristics of a weak cycle with long-term growth potential. The average vehicle age has steadily increased and is irreversible, with passenger cars rising from an average age of 5.6 years in 1970 to 13.6 years in 2023. Similarly, light trucks have increased from 7.3 years to 11.8 years during the same period. The total mileage of vehicles in the U.S. has grown from 0.25 trillion miles in 1945 to 3.21 trillion miles in 2022, with a CAGR of 3.37%. The U.S. light vehicle aftermarket has shown a CAGR of 3.94% from 2014 to 2023, demonstrating strong anti-cyclical properties [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Global Comparison - The dominant models in the global automotive aftermarket can be categorized into three types: U.S., Japan, and Germany. The U.S. model is characterized by independent operators dominating 80% of the market, while Japan relies heavily on the 4S service model, and Germany maintains a balance between both [5][12]. Market Characteristics - The U.S. automotive aftermarket is described as a weak cycle with long-term growth potential. The average vehicle age is increasing irreversibly, with significant historical data showing that economic downturns lead to a rise in average vehicle age. For instance, during the 2009 financial crisis, U.S. light vehicle sales dropped by 15.36%, while the aftermarket only declined by 1.44% [6][23]. Competitive Landscape - The U.S. automotive parts industry has seen increased concentration due to multiple rounds of mergers and acquisitions. The market share of the top four automotive parts companies has risen from 7.3% in 1995 to 49.3% in 2023. The DIY market is more concentrated than the DIFM market, indicating a more competitive landscape in the latter [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading players in the domestic automotive aftermarket, such as Tuhu, as the market is expected to evolve towards the U.S. model, with large automotive parts chains likely to dominate [4][16].