梅花生物：味精价格下行拖累Q3业绩，苏、赖氨酸价格调涨有望带动业绩回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5][6][11] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was negatively impacted by declining prices of monosodium glutamate, leading to a year-over-year revenue decrease of 9% to 186.81 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 8% to 19.95 billion yuan [5][6] - Despite the challenges in Q3, the price increases of lysine and threonine are expected to drive a recovery in Q4 performance [5][6] - The company has a strong history of cash dividends and share buybacks, with a cumulative dividend of 9.809 billion yuan from 2012 to 2023, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 60.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 13% year-over-year, and a net profit of 5.21 billion yuan, down 34% year-over-year [5][6] - The gross margin for Q3 was 17.65%, reflecting a decline compared to previous periods due to price pressures on key products [5][6] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, revenue from various segments included 16.85 billion yuan from flavor enhancers, 28.77 billion yuan from feed amino acids, and 1.03 billion yuan from pharmaceutical amino acids, with significant year-over-year changes [5][6] Price Trends - Average prices for key products in Q3 2024 were 7,532 yuan/ton for monosodium glutamate, 10,632 yuan/ton for 98.5% lysine, and 10,848 yuan/ton for threonine, with varying year-over-year changes [5][6] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase prices for threonine and lysine, which is expected to stabilize revenue and mitigate the impact of declining monosodium glutamate prices [5][6] - The company has ongoing projects to expand production capacity, with significant investments in new facilities expected to come online in H2 2024 [5][6] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 26.64 billion yuan, 30.13 billion yuan, and 34.83 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the impact of current market conditions [5][6]