资本市场点评：美债利率的反弹还会继续吗？

Group 1: Reasons for the Rebound in US Treasury Yields - US Treasury yields have rebounded significantly since October, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.2%[2] - The downward revision of interest rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve, from 3 cuts to less than 2, has contributed to the yield increase[2] - The resurgence of the "Trump trade" is influencing market sentiment, as Trump's policies may hinder the Fed's ability to cut rates, leading to higher yields[2] Group 2: Future Outlook for US Treasury Yields - The rebound in US Treasury yields is expected to continue until the election results are finalized[3] - The potential for further downward revisions in rate cut expectations remains, given the resilience of US consumer spending and persistent service inflation[3] - If the Republican Party wins the upcoming election, yields could rise to a range of 4.25% to 4.35%[3] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Despite the short-term yield rebound, US Treasuries are still considered a high-certainty strategy due to the anticipated Fed rate cut cycle and high coupon advantages[3] - If Trump is elected, a focus on short to medium-duration Treasuries is recommended, emphasizing coupon strategies[3] - If Harris is elected, a longer duration strategy may be appropriate to capture higher capital gains, as his policies may lead to a soft landing for the economy[3]